LSA Market Shares Archives - Page 2 of 7

Light-Sport Aircraft Market Shares for Fleet and 2016

By Dan Johnson || May 1, 2017 9 Comments

A dozen years after FAA created aviation's newest sector, we have a new leader among manufacturers of fully built Light-Sport Aircraft. CubCrafters has been moving upward with several years hitting 50 deliveries. In 2016 the west coast builder finally topped perennial leader Flight Design, which slipped to second place. The CT builder had occupied the #1 position since the beginning of Light-Sport Aircraft. Only four aircraft separate the two brands. Note: this article has been updated twice; see at end. —DJ In the single-year race, Czech Sport Aircraft won convincingly with almost double the next closest producer. The Czech builder performed well in 2015 but significantly increased last year. Congratulations to both companies.

Our well-known SLSA Market Share chart illustrates the size of the entire fleet since the beginning of the newest category.

To explain further, our "whole fleet" market share chart — the one we have published going back to 2006 — keeps track of all Special LSA (SLSA) airplanes in the U.S. fleet. Regretfully, we are unable to properly account for weight shift trikes, powered parachutes, gyroplanes, or motorgliders because the database is too variable. This does not mean to criticize FAA data entry clerks; for example, how should they list a trike that uses a different ASTM-compliant wing? Does it deserve a different model name? Also, gyroplanes must be sold as kits in the USA (for now) even while fully built models are selling strongly overseas. We believe all the sub-categories of LSA could increase the fleet count by an additional 25% but we only show fixed wing airplanes in our chart. Likewise, we give a small reference to Experimental LSA (ELSA) when we can account for them with good accuracy. Finally, many two-place ultralights converted to ELSA before 2010 are not counted. Add all these types and the U.S. market for LSA or LSA-like aircraft probably exceeds 10,000 flying machines and even that does not include ultralights. For more on this accounting dilemma read this article or this one (see chart at end). The numbers come directly from FAA's registration (N-number) database. Besides the difficulty for FAA to correctly identify many makes and models, mistakes or changes happen. Entry errors can occur. Airplanes may be sold out of the USA. Mishaps can remove an aircraft from the database. These possibilities can cause our numbers not to identically match what a producer may show as American sales. Despite these disclaimers, we know our information is the best available and we work hard to assure the most accurate information we can find. For this effort, I am deeply grateful to LAMA Europe director, Jan Fridrich, who has faithfully maintained this information for more than a decade. Jan expertly does this tedious database work even as his job with the Czech Light Aircraft Association has taken him to China nearly two dozen times in the last couple years as he and his nation attempt to help China grow its recreational aircraft community. After producing the fleet chart for several years, people wanted to know how various companies had done only in the last year. For the last few years, we have broken out these figures in our calendar chart. Of course, this list faces he same challenges and our numbers may not exactly agree with what producer records show. Over time, both charts tend to get closer. We have and will continue to omit some brands from our Top-20 market share ranking if the supplying company leaves the business and no one absorbs their production. For example, Cessna has nearly 300 examples flying in America. However, since you can no longer buy a new one, even this famous brand may one day be dropped from the list.

Changes in the Rankings

Besides the leaders, the Top-5 brands remained steady with CubCrafters, Flight Design, Czech Sport Aircraft, American Legend, and Tecnam holding their highest rankings.

Our newer Calendar-Year SLSA Market Share table reveals which companies had the strongest performances in 2016.

Jabiru moved up one notch, while Remos slipped one. Aerotrek (another year-after-year gainer) climbed another rank while Evektor fell one. Nonetheless the top five, these last four, and Cessna are the only brands breaking into triple digits. Although Pipistrel gives us challenges to count (some are registered as Experimental Exhibition), the Slovenian company has also exhibited an even climb and now ranks 11th in the fleet or 3rd for calendar 2016. One fooler is SportairUSA, which markets both TL Ultralights and Zlin. Neither has broken 100 yet but when combined SportairUSA has and that's before fresh excitement over their new Outback Shock. Van's continues to make more fully built RV-12s with their partner Synergy Air. Progressive Aerodyne, builder of the Searey approved in both USA and China, has had and still boasts solid years. The central Florida company is the clear leader in LSA seaplanes even while Icon's A5 finally began to show up with 13 new registrations in 2016. Finally, while our main chart focuses on the top brands, note that the largest single percentage are registrations from “All other producers.” The same is true in our calendar year chart. Sometimes called "boutique brands," these companies continue to find customers. Even as Light-Sport Aircraft matures as a niche in the aviation industry, its promise remains strong. As our ongoing reporting from Aero and Sun 'n Fun shows, new models continue to be developed and governments in more countries are embracing the ASTM standards to approve these aircraft. No wonder the general aviation world wants what LSA has. Unlike legacy aircraft producers — those making general aircraft that have changed little over half a century — the LSA space continues to supply interesting, innovative, modestly priced, good performing, superbly equipped, and yes! …safe aircraft. Now that most manufacturers have seen BasicMed has not materially affected their business the American LSA segment grows steadily while worldwide sales continue to eclipse new GA single engine piston deliveries by multiple times. Update #1 — May 1, 2017: After this article was posted, Pete Krotje of Jabiru North America wrote, "Your 2016 LSA chart shows Jabiru North America with five units last year. The number is actually seven (N733Y, N766J, N768J, N72TA, N773J, N218KC, and N772J (a J170-D)." We love when vendors aid our effort to achieve accuracy. This information was shared with Jan Fridrich. Update #2 — May 2, 2017: After Tecnam's U.S. base got a number of calls about this article, we exchanged email about the process. While we can only reliably count FAA registrations and these numbers may not precisely match a seller's data, Tecnam USA observed, "FAA registers us in different ways. Sometimes just Tecnam, sometimes Costruzioni Aeronautiche Tecnam, and sometimes Tecnam SRL C.A. So that might be why not all the Tecnams sold were included." Their sales records show the following 17 SLSA were sold in 2016: 7 Astore models, 8 P2008s, and 2 P92s. Thanks to Tecnam for sharing this and again, we forwarded the numbers to Jan.

A dozen years after FAA created aviation’s newest sector, we have a new leader among manufacturers of fully built Light-Sport Aircraft. CubCrafters has been moving upward with several years hitting 50 deliveries. In 2016 the west coast builder finally topped perennial leader Flight Design, which slipped to second place. The CT builder had occupied the #1 position since the beginning of Light-Sport Aircraft. Only four aircraft separate the two brands. Note: this article has been updated twice; see at end. —DJ In the single-year race, Czech Sport Aircraft won convincingly with almost double the next closest producer. The Czech builder performed well in 2015 but significantly increased last year. Congratulations to both companies. To explain further, our “whole fleet” market share chart — the one we have published going back to 2006 — keeps track of all Special LSA (SLSA) airplanes in the U.S. fleet. Regretfully, we are unable to properly account for weight shift trikes, powered parachutes, gyroplanes, or motorgliders because the database is too variable.

SLSA Market Shares Report & Commentary for 2015

By Dan Johnson || April 21, 2016 2 Comments

Updated 4/26/16 - This chart was updated to correct a formula error. The changed line refers to the "All other producers..." figure. It was 429 airplanes and 14.7% and that was incorrect.

SportCruiser by Czech Sport Aircraft, sold in the USA by U.S. Sport Aircraft, moved up again with a solid 2015.

While repeating another respectable year of SLSA sales (in addition to their kit sales), Searey may have become the best-selling LSA in China.

Article Updated 8/8/16 — The second chart appearing below for Calendar 2015 results had errors in the spreadsheet formula. They have been corrected below. —DJ My associate in Europe, Jan Fridrich of LAMA Europe, has been the source for a database search for many years as I seek to report market share statistics in the USA. He scours the FAA registration information and laboriously assembles the numbers. As he and I work to produce accurate info, Jan often makes contact with selected companies when questions arise, as they often do. I also reach out to producers in our effort to make the best possible use of the registration data to create our rankings. Jan has been one of his country's representatives in the Czech Republic's official work with the Chinese to help that nation build its lighter aviation infrastructure. He's made many trips to China in the last two years. Along with frequent travel in his job for the Light Aircraft Association time is short for him to find the hours it takes to review FAA's data. For 2015 data, he completed the effort as I headed to Sun 'n Fun and then to Aero, so... finally, here is our report with hearty thanks to Jan for doing this tedious work. The summary view is that American LSA registrations have remained very consistent over the last three years (2013, 2014, and 2105). Most industry players believe we should be seeing higher figures but the LSA results closely mirror trends reported by GAMA for type certified aircraft. Likely reasons for lower numbers may include pilots still uncertain what will happen with the medical and a large fleet of still airworthy though increasingly older used aircraft — the average age of which is around 38 years — that are available at lower cost than a new Light-Sport Aircraft. Since I am in Europe as this is written, I can pass along that several Europeans see a similar picture here, albeit without the medical issue. As 2016 began, America had just shy of 3,000 LSA airplanes in the registry. As we've said for years, this figure does not include weight shift aircraft, powered parachutes, motorgliders, or gyroplanes, which, if they could be accurately counted, would conservatively add 20%. Also, the figure also does not count many ELSA and should not count Experimental Amateur Built even if those aircraft are nearly identical to Special LSA. See this 2014 article for an effort to give a more accurate total of the LSA, LSA-like aircraft, and Sport Pilot-eligible aircraft operating in the United States. Our main fleet chart above reflects all SLSA airplanes ever sold in the USA, less any that have been removed from the registry, for example, if sold outside the USA or lost in an accident. As you can see, CubCrafters continues their climb and is now hovering just below Flight Design. Czech Sport Aircraft, American Legend, and Tecnam continue their growth making up the top five names. We leave Cessna on the chart for now but most readers know Skycatchers are no long being produced so they will climb no further. However, companies like Icon made their first tiny impact on the list with a single registration in 2015. I visited with Kirk Hawkins at Aero; he invited me to see their production facility in a month or so. When that California airframer begins serial production, their large number of orders should thrust them upward at an increasing pace (troublesome contract problems notwithstanding). In recent years our main chart also attempts to at least mention ELSA ad EAB where we believe we can rely on the numbers we find. Our more recent chart of single year performance is lead again by CubCrafters although even their pace slowed for 2015. The Western U.S. producer remains well ahead but others have done credibly well: Czech Sport Aircraft, Pipistrel, Progressive Aerodyne (Searey) and Van's. SportCruiser registrations were up from 2014 as were Pipistrel's while Van's, American Legend, Aerotrek, and Flight Design were down. Tecnam's numbers reflect only registrations of their LSA models but the company reports selling a similar number of type certified aircraft so their total American market presence is greater than our charts reflect. One you haven't seen at airshows in the last couple years is the Phoenix Air motorglider, an elegant machine but one in too-short supply, said U.S. importer Jim Lee. He has not been attending shows and will drop his advertising as delivery delays have stretched out too far despite interest he has found from American soaring enthusiasts. As noted, Icon added only one SLSA registration in 2015, Cessna is gone, and Quicksilver experienced their own drop from 2014 as that company reorganized. However, honorable mentions are deserved for Super Petrel (4 added), Sling (3), Brazilian Paradise is returning to the market after an absence (2 in 2015) and Topaz continues to build modestly (2). Another interesting development just announced includes the return of Zenair and their popular CH-750 STOL aircraft that will again be assembled as a ready-to-fly SLSA by M-Squared Aircraft in Alabama. Those readers fascinated with these numbers may wish to compare 2014 and 2013 info, so click those links to read those earlier reports. We dropped Allegro from the top-20 ranking even though their aircraft still has a good count as we've done with a few other brands over the years. Finally, while our main chart focuses on the top brands, note that the largest single percentage are registrations from "All other producers." So-called boutique brands still have their place in the LSA spectrum. As always, our disclaimer is that we only count FAA registrations and only those from the USA, which leaves out the rest of the world that accounts for most sales of LSA-type aircraft. Our statistics will not be identical to what companies reports as sales and do not include aircraft retired from service for any reason. Lastly, I repeat we cannot accurately count a share of new aircraft sales that might amount to 20-25% more if the data were reliable. These observations combine to make a more conservative report than may actually be factual but we prefer to err on the side of caution.

SLSA N-Number Registrations in First Half 2015

By Dan Johnson || September 10, 2015 Leave a Comment

Pipistrel's long-winged Sinus did quite well during the first half of 2015.

Florida-based Progressive Aerodyne is surging in sales since winning SLSA acceptance. They have also cracked the Chinese market.

The U.S. market for Special Light-Sport Aircraft continues to grow at steady pace, modestly better than the trend for single engine piston certified aircraft as reported by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association for the first half of 2015. SLSA deliveries in the half-year period totaled 97 units, with 91 of those coming from 15 manufacturers, showing that the famous 80/20 rule still generally applies ... more than 80% of the market is supplied by less than 20% of the builders. It also implies the majority of those companies who previously earned FAA acceptance for their LSA models are either quite slow or inactive in the U.S. market. We'd prefer to describe vigorous growth but the so-named Great Recession seems to be lingering on; at least it appears the much-talked-about recovery has left most of aviation still looking for improved business. Evidence of a still-troubled global economy is even clearer when you consider the wild stock market gyrations of recent weeks. Even while some sectors and companies continue to struggle, some are more successful. In this first half 2015 LSA market share report, we'll hit some highlights and save a more detailed analysis for the full 2015 year report early next year. One LSA businessman asked, "I know some companies out there may be claiming [many sales]." Yet other than Icon — and previously Cessna — I have never heard of any company that claimed to have sold large numbers of airplanes. Most of the more successful producers have moved steadily forward without any big leap in sales. The laborious research done so faithfully by my friend and LAMA Europe business associate, Jan Fridrich, allows me to report first half 2015 numbers. Jan's study of FAA's N-Number registration database shows four companies with decent results. Of course, "decent" is a relative term. If you compare airplane sales — at any level from hang gliders to bizjets — to automobile sales or smartphone deliveries, the numbers look microscopic. Remember, the entire world has somewhere over one million pilots and only one in four of them might own an airplane bought any time in the last quarter to half century. Building airplanes is not a volume business and aircraft production is probably closer to that of exotic supercar manufacturers. One hundred sales in a year is a great performance and very, very few companies hit or exceed that. Special LSA registrations are running almost identical to 2014's figures. This can be viewed positively in the sense that it is better than GAMA's reported 12% decline for the first half of 2015. Regretfully, both sets of numbers show continued softness in aviation, whether general or sport/recreational. Figures for the LSA industry appear to be about a quarter of GAMA's Single Engine Piston category that compares most accurately with SLSA registrations. However, as I've often observed, the U.S. market is by far the largest for general aviation airplanes where sport and recreational sell better outside the USA. When you consider the rest of the world, LSA or LSA-type aircraft may sell two to three times the number of certified aircraft sold in America. Unfortunately, widely differing national systems make it very difficult to count aircraft in other countries. We prefer to report solid information rather than guesstimates even if it makes the industry look smaller than it is. For a look at global figures see this article and this one, which was updated here. Our numbers also reflect only fully manufactured LSA as those are the only aircraft we can reliably count when researching FAA's registration database, regretfully omitting weight shift, powered parachutes, motorgliders, and of course, gyroplanes. Nonetheless, we do have some valid information for ELSA (at least for the most recognizable companies, such as Van's Aircraft). Adding known ELSA and those Experimental Amateur Built models boosts the total. In the first half of 2015, CubCrafters remains the strongest seller logging 23 new registrations or about one a week. The western U.S. producer is steadily approaching Flight Design's once-unassailable #1 spot although Icon is a company that could dramatically alter the market share ranking if they are successful at serial production of their large order book. Pipistrel registered 17 SLSA in the first half of 2015, which looks to be the second best performance after CubCrafters. The European company also sells a fair number of motorglider types registered differently from SLSA. Indeed 14 of the 17 were their long winged Sinus that offers interchangeable wing extensions (see video). Progressive Aerodyne has also accelerated smartly since winning FAA acceptance of their SLSA version of their popular Searey that has been quite successful as a kit-built model. The Florida seaplane producer has also cracked the China market and may soon become the number one LSA seller in that country. They've already sold a dozen Seareys and have several more orders in the pipeline. If China grows as many anticipate, this American company could move forward quickly, especially in a region where airports remain in short supply. Other companies that did reasonably well in the first half of 2015 include Jabiru (who also reported good sales at Oshkosh that should show up in our report covering the second half of 2105), Tecnam, SportCruiser, Flight Design, Aerotrek, American Legend (with their powerful Super Legend), Rans (S-7LS), and the lovely Phoenix LSA motorglider. Postscript — I don't know how many of you saw AOPA writer Al Marsh's article, but the following appears to show a fairly rosy future for Light-Sport and Sport Pilot. Of course, as Al notes, FAA cannot see the future better than anyone else. Nonetheless, here's what he wrote: "Where is general aviation headed? The truth is, nobody knows, but the FAA is paid to try to predict the future. Earlier this year the FAA released these numbers that are as good as any at predicting the future." 593,499 Total number of pilots in 2014 — predicted to increase to 617,000 in 2035 174,883 Number of private pilots in 2014 — predicted to drop to 163,600 in 2035 120,546 Number of student pilots in 2014 — predicted to drop to 112,200 in 2035 44.8 Average age of a U.S. pilot in 2014 (Note: LSA pilots tend to be markedly older) 139,890 Number of aircraft in the piston-engine fleet in 2014 — predicted to drop to 125,935 in 2035 198,860 GA fleet total in 2014 — predicted to increase to 214,260 in 2035 2,200 Estimated Light-Sport Aircraft fleet in 2014 • — predicted to increase to 5,360 in 2035 5,157 Number of Sport Pilots in 2014 — predicted to grow to 14,950 by 2035 • I do not know where FAA found this number since their own database shows more than 2,750 SLSA through December 2014 based on a study of the agency's registration data.

REVISED: World Aviation Statistics with New Data

By Dan Johnson || June 1, 2015 Leave a Comment

Revised Article UPDATED: 6/5/15 / New total LSA and LSA-like chart (at bottom) — At best statistics can be fluid and hard to state precisely. In response to my request for any Australian input below, Neil Jansen responded, "I found some data sourced from the authority that manages such aircraft categories in Australia (Recreational Aviation Australia)." He attached a PDF article. After my review of this document, I can say that I was not grossly off in my guesstimate of 2,000 LSA-type aircraft. I attempted to be conservative and evidently I was. From a review of the charts and article, I would now increase my Australia figures from 2,000 to perhaps 2,700 so the final calculus of around 50,000 worldwide aircraft looks even more solid. That said, my European counterpart, Jan Fridrich, and I since had a conversation that suggests even 50,000 may not fully cover it. However, better to be conservative on such estimates, I believe. —DJ

One of my favorite tales was taken from an old Delta Air Lines house magazine, the sort sent to employees of the company before email invaded our lives. Airlines have their own meteorology departments and the Delta guys once wrote, "Every time you forecast the weather, you know you're wrong; you just don't know by how much or when. If you are ever right, never let 'em forget it." Ah, yes, remember when we correctly forecast that big storm, back in 1967? I got a lot of chuckles from telling that story. Weather forecasting is much better today, but statistics can often be wrong despite best efforts. Along this line, I heard from a reader, an engineer in Italy, "In your article 'Analyzing Statistics on Worldwide Aviation,' you did not mention my country."

In this update article, I wish to correct that shortcoming and add a couple more pieces of information. The result of my deeper examination pushes sport and recreational aircraft closer to 50,000 worldwide. My Italian reader, who preferred I did not use his name, wrote, "Apart from being the country from where several LSA aircraft arrive — he mentions Tecnam, which may be the largest LSA and light aircraft producer on the planet — we have over 13,000 registered "ultralight" aircraft with the Aeroclub of Italy (a national institution managing registrations of ultralight aircraft, including gyrocopters and helicopters)." I add that Germany does something similar with its DAeC and DULV, which might account for GAMA having zero information about microlights in Germany, a nation I know to have a significant number of such aircraft.

The Italian engineer continued with his amplification, "Although the number (13,000) includes 'ancient' aircraft from the '80s that might be out of commission now, I can confirm that well over 6,000 aircraft are flying from hundreds of grass strips and aerodromes across the country." As such, this places Italy — correctly so, based on corroborating information — in the top tier of countries with a large base of light and sport aircraft. "The reason why [the aircraft count] is not so obvious," he further clarified, "is that the certification of pilots and aircraft is done outside of ENAC (Italian equivalent of FAA) and therefore does not get reported in the usual channels where numbers of registered aircraft are accounted." "Ultralight (generally meaning the European name for light two seaters, not the U.S. superlight single seaters) registrations for Italy follow the [aircraft registration] format I-1234, or I-A123 now that we passed 10,000 registrations. I have seen I-C1xx (can't remember the exact number, but it means that we passed 13,000 registrations already)." He added, "I think we had over 2,000 in the last five years or so."

Looking at the pilot side of the equation, he noted, "On a forum I read the impressive number of 17,500 active ultralight pilots." "So, despite the obvious intention of keeping a low profile to make sure that the Revenue Service does not develop some new creative tax to hit a vulnerable sector, it looks like there are plenty of pilots and planes filling our skies," the Italian writer concluded. He then invited, "Come visit and we'll be happy to show you around." That's an offer I'd like to take when I also wish to visit the large Tecnam facility in Italy. My source finished his message saying, "I fly a older Aeronca with American N-numbers using an FAA Private certificate and therefore I don't even show up in that list." I also managed to overlook two other countries of note. My apology and the only excuse I can offer is that GAMA assembled a great deal of info and I simply did not absorb it all. However, the news is good for the light aircraft sector as the numbers rose considerably from my first estimate of about 40,000 light and/or sport aircraft in the world. I still don't know exactly how to evaluate Australia's numbers — as they did not break out the LSA-type group in any identifiable way — but I would conservatively guess their microlight/LSA/VLA sector could have around 2,000 light or sport aircraft. If someone in that country knows better, please do educate me. I'd like for these reviews to be as accurate as possible. However, neighboring New Zealand offered more data. Their listing through me off as they switched methods after 2005 and again after 2010. Yet based on further study, I can see they show 1,059 "microlights" and they once showed a high, in 2009 of 1,853 "Sport" aircraft. From this I might guess they have around 2,000 of what might be called LSA-types. So, with good Italy info and more from down under, I feel reasonably confident reporting that pilots around the globe fly somewhere around 50,000 light, sport, recreational aircraft. The update of substantial information about Italy and my further pondering of the many pages in GAMA's detailed report suggest two things to me. First, statistics are devilishly hard to obtain and are subject to all sorts of inconsistencies, many of human origin. Secondly, no matter how you cut it, light and sport aircraft are a very substantial sector of the worldwide family of aircraft. Here you can examine our chart for LSA and LSA-like aircraft around the world. Please consider all the notes to interpret the figures.

Revised Article UPDATED: 6/5/15 / New total LSA and LSA-like chart (at bottom) — At best statistics can be fluid and hard to state precisely. In response to my request for any Australian input below, Neil Jansen responded, “I found some data sourced from the authority that manages such aircraft categories in Australia (Recreational Aviation Australia).” He attached a PDF article. After my review of this document, I can say that I was not grossly off in my guesstimate of 2,000 LSA-type aircraft. I attempted to be conservative and evidently I was. From a review of the charts and article, I would now increase my Australia figures from 2,000 to perhaps 2,700 so the final calculus of around 50,000 worldwide aircraft looks even more solid. That said, my European counterpart, Jan Fridrich, and I since had a conversation that suggests even 50,000 may not fully cover it.

Analyzing Statistics on Worldwide Aviation

By Dan Johnson || May 23, 2015 Leave a Comment

Update Notice — The following article has been updated to reflect additional information. Please read at this link.

Thanks to a solid effort by GAMA, the General Aviation Manufacturers Association, I have data that can be used to assess the numbers of recreational aircraft around the world. That organization is significantly focused on business aircraft but did include all levels of aircraft in their country-by-country review. Whatever the actual level of accuracy — GAMA is wholly dependent on the data the organization received from various CAAs in each country — GAMA's data is some very useful info and I am in their debt for the information discussed in this review. In addition to GAMA having to use whatever each country reported, the methods of reporting were not consistent. For one noteworthy example, several countries listed as their smallest aircraft those weighing 5,700 kilograms (12,540 pounds), which represents far larger aircraft than your typical four-seat GA aircraft and certainly any recreational aircraft. Many European countries listed "microlights" or "ultralights," two common descriptions for aircraft that commonly look like Light-Sport Aircraft do in America. However, Germany, home to many microlights or ultralights, oddly did not report this category. The Czech Republic, home to many LSA producers, was also not reported. Therefore, it's probably wise to consider my following analysis with a degree of caution. Regardless of its reliability, this is the best compendium I've seen so thanks again to our friends at GAMA.

To provide some perspective, let's look at certified GA aircraft first. From its peak in 1978, U.S.-manufactured GA deliveries have fallen dramatically, by 93% from 14,398 single engine piston aircraft in 1978 to 986 in 2014. Fortunately, since 2000 the continuing drop is less severe, for example in 2006, worldwide GAMA members reported delivering a new millennia peak of 2,513 aircraft; the decline to 986 is a drop of 61%. The '60s and '70s were clearly the "golden era" for GA piston airplane production. Accounting for this drop, beside pilot population decreases (see below) and airplanes lasting so long — the average age of four seater is 38.2 years old — most competition likely came from non-flying activities. Among aircraft choices, Experimentals in the last two decades have grown 143% to nearly 25,000 aircraft. LSA in fully built or kit form add to GA's competition although much less so partly as Experimentals have been around much longer. Overall, the overall GA fleet has held reasonably steady despite the references above, declining from a peak of piston airplanes in FAA's registry of 197,442 in 1984 to 137,655 in 2013, a drop of about 30%. When you add kit-built aircraft and LSA, the total fleet numbers look relatively stable. In geographic location of that U.S. aircraft fleet the conventional knowledge about the biggest three states still holds, with California having 26,141 aircraft registered, followed by Texas at 22,851, trailed by Florida at 18,162. The next closest state (Washington) has barely half the Florida count ... but see below for where pilots live.

The number of airmen — pilots with certificates — explains some of the aircraft delivery decreases. From a peak in GAMA's numbers of 827,071 licensed pilots in 1980 to the current number of 593,499, I calculate a drop of 28% over 34 years. Keep in mind that nearly 47,000 of those airmen are not Americans but foreign nationals holding a U.S. certificate. Private Pilots have dropped by 51%, but many of those probably went on to higher ratings as ATPs grew by 120% in the same period to account for 26% of all certificate holders. No doubt related to that, CFIs grew by 67% to become 17% of all certificate holders and pilots with Instrument ratings also increased by 18%. Those holding a Spot Pilot certificate now totals 5,157, reported GAMA, while Recreational Pilot peaked at 343 in 1999 and has since shrunk to only 220 certificates. Neither of the last two amount to even 1% of all license holders though the other certificate categories have several decades of history the newer ones lack. You might lament the Sport Pilot certificate numbers. Certainly, many in the GA world thought Sport Pilot was single-handedly going to grow the pilot population a lot more. While I do not believe that was ever a realistic expectation, here's some good news. Most pilots I know think the pilot population is graying quickly and that we may be in danger of running out of pilots. GAMA's stats say otherwise. The biggest single category may be what you expect with those aged 50-64 counting 179,277 pilots but the surprising second largest segment is close behind. Those aged a young 20-35 years old number 173,396 pilots. The 35-50 cohort is much smaller, perhaps as they are busy raising families and paying for mortgages and college eductions for their kids. In the top ten states for pilot populations, California still leads with 59,213 but Florida has climbed into the number #2 slot at 52,976 — and the state is number one in flight instructors with 9,592 — followed by Texas with 49,614 total pilots, Washington state (18,665), Georgia (18,131), Arizona (18,029), Illinois (16,307), New York (15,949), Pennsylvania (15,187), and Ohio (15,137). Now let's look at LSA-type aircraft elsewhere in the world. I have reported that the rest of world accounts for large numbers of "sport" or "light" airplanes, much more than the USA. This is definitely not the case in the certified GA aircraft world where America dominates. As mentioned above, the method of counting is all over the place — and in saying that I mean no disrespect to GAMA's Herculean effort nor the stats provided by reporting national CAAs. Nonetheless the variable reporting methods makes it difficult to come up with exact numbers. I plodded through chart after chart and here's my analysis.

Where I could identify microlights, ultralights, or LSA types, I calculated 19,613 aircraft in what might be called "greater Europe" (mostly EU countries). Making an informed guess of at least 4,000 "microlight/ultralight" for Germany — which country, as noted above, did not supply a detailed value for this category — and adding non-European countries such as South Africa (6,072 including "Sport, Recreational, and Experimental"), Canada (7,125 "ultralights"), and Brazil plus Asian countries (small counts for several nations), I make a best estimate of about 40,000 LSA-type aircraft outside the USA. This figure includes estimates for Sweden and Switzerland that did not break out their reporting. Also included in the 40,000 count is England with strong numbers of 4,029 "microlights" and 3,269 "Fixed Wing Aeroplanes of less than 750 kilograms" (1,650 pounds). See updated figures in this newer article. SPECIAL NOTES: France is singular reporting 8,476 "ultralights" (counted in the 19,613 number), the most of any country, while Germany deserves separate mention for having 7,657 sailplanes plus 3,357 motorgliders — more than any other country in the world by far — though they are not LSA types. In summation, my earlier reporting suggests that while certified aircraft and the pilot population are in a long-term decline (a fairly well-known assessment), sport and recreational aircraft, including kit-built, continue to expand. Given entry by emerging aviation countries like China and India with their immense populations, the expected increase of the light, sport segment looks to remain aviation's growth sector. Then, we have the developing LSA 4.0 group, but that's another story ...

Update Notice — The following article has been updated to reflect additional information. Please read at this link. Thanks to a solid effort by GAMA, the General Aviation Manufacturers Association, I have data that can be used to assess the numbers of recreational aircraft around the world. That organization is significantly focused on business aircraft but did include all levels of aircraft in their country-by-country review. Whatever the actual level of accuracy — GAMA is wholly dependent on the data the organization received from various CAAs in each country — GAMA’s data is some very useful info and I am in their debt for the information discussed in this review. In addition to GAMA having to use whatever each country reported, the methods of reporting were not consistent. For one noteworthy example, several countries listed as their smallest aircraft those weighing 5,700 kilograms (12,540 pounds), which represents far larger aircraft than your typical four-seat GA aircraft and certainly any recreational aircraft.

LSA Market Shares — Fleet and Calendar 2014

By Dan Johnson || March 22, 2015 2 Comments

Image of Searey in flight by Searey Canada.

As spring approaches and with major airshows like Aero Friedrichshafen in Germany and Sun 'n Fun in Florida about to trigger a new season of recreational flying, it is time for an annual update of Light-Sport Aircraft market shares. Our well-known "fleet" chart appears nearby; this table refers to all Special LSA registered with FAA in the United States since the first aircraft was accepted by FAA almost ten years ago (on April 5, 2005). We again post our Calendar 2014 tally that shows the success only in that year as a means of drawing attention to those brands and models performing the best in the last twelve months. We remind you that these charts use as their source the FAA registration (N-number) database, that is then carefully studied and corrected to make the most reliable report possible. However, two points: (1) this report will still have some errors as the database on which we rely has some faulty information ... though we believe this to be modest and, as noted, we correct it where we can; and, (2) aircraft registrations are not likely to be perfectly in sync with company records of sales for a variety of reasons. Other organizations ask companies to report deliveries and this, too, can have weaknesses, but we stand by our chart and the text report as the most factual details we can locate. It is also worth noting that we only attempt to tally the Top-20 for ranking yet we draw your attention to the "All Other Producers" category that, by itself, represents the largest segment at 15.7% or about one in six aircraft. Further, we repeat the chart notes that these figures are only fixed-wing airplanes, which leaves out weight shift, powered parachutes, gliders, gyroplanes, and other worthy categories. We wish to include them but the information has proven too unreliable so in the interest of the most accuracy we can report, we regretfully omit these interesting aircraft. As you can see from the nearby Calendar Year 2014 Report, CubCrafters again lead the field. They have done well for several years, however, the most notable movement of the year was from worldwide kit airplane manufacturer, Van's Aircraft who works with Synergy Air to build ready-to-fly RV-12s. Seemingly overnight, Van's appeared on our fleet chart and rocketed up to the #13 spot. Given the Van's RV-series popularity and the existence of a large number of RV-12 kits, it seems clear Van's will overtake several other producers in the years ahead and rise to near the top of the chart. More on that below. Another up and comer, not even on last year's fleet chart, is Progressive Aerodyne's Seayrey amphibian SLSA. Over many years this company has delivered more than 600 kit versions of its amphib. They won FAA audit approval to make SLSA models in late 2013 and went right to work filling demand. They've also won Chinese TDA approval and may break into that market, which many expect to explode. Clearly, Searey is leading the charge on LSA seaplanes even while some other interesting designs go through design and production exercises. Regular top players such as Flight Design, Tecnam, Aerotrek, American Legend, Czech Sport Aircraft, and Pipistrel — some of the top and best-established brands — also fared well in 2014. Yet another appearing for the first time is Quicksilver Aeronautics. They won FAA audit approval to sell SLSA versions of their immensely popular kit aircraft in late 2014 and notched up their first Special LSA sales. The company can boast more than 15,000 kit aircraft flying. A couple other honorable mentions go to Bristell (BRM Aero), which though new, is seeing good interest; Sling, which is rising and has a four seater kit to offer as well; and deluxe motorglider Phoenix. Their numbers were not big but these companies are ones to watch, we believe. Others holding up their brands include Evektor with its sleeker Harmony, Aeroprakt, and Jabiru (the last went through a manufacturing evolution and can offer even better pricing). As we show an image of the handsome Van's RV-12, we want to bring your attention to the small print alongside the Van's rank. This company, known for their kit-making prowess — with more than 9,000 delivered and flying — has registered 314 kit versions of RV-12 for a total impact of 364 aircraft. Were we to combine these, they would vault to second place, ready to challenge longtime leader Flight Design for the largest LSA fleet in the country. You may also note that our chart this year, for the first time, incorporates a number for "identifiable" kits, either as Experimental LSA (ELSA) or Experimental Amateur Built (EAB) models. The figure we felt we could correctly identify amounted to 797 airplanes (again ... no weight shift, powered parachutes, or gyros), which represent an additional 29%. If we could gather reliable details on the WS, PPC, and gyro fleet, we might add another 25% or so. Based on the greater EAB community in the USA, kit LSA aircraft may begin to add significant numbers and if we can tally them accurately we will continue to reference them. As we consider Searey's strong performance in 2014, we again note that this is a company that cut its teeth with kit production. Over 600 have been sold and more than 500 are reportedly flying. Searey kit owners make a very strong and closeknit group of seaplane pilots with one of the largest amphibious populations anywhere. As most readers will know, we can expect several other interesting seaplanes in the years ahead, from companies like Icon, MVP, and Vickers plus others. We are also aware of several other landplane LSA designs in the works and then will come electric aircraft (assuming FAA can find a way to invite these aircraft into the LSA fleet, which unfortunately is far from certain at this time). Yet all we present above is only the American market. The USA may be the largest single market but the rest of the world invites comparison to the famous 80/20 rule. The USA has roughly 20% of all recreational aircraft but other countries are excellent markets for lower-cost, fuel efficient, and modern airplanes. When we add them all, using powerplant production as a measuring stick, we believe the total market for light aircraft exceeded 3,000 airplanes in 2014. With GAMA reporting 986 single engine piston general aviation aircraft for the same year, it is clear the light aircraft segment is substantially larger and for these aircraft, we believe the global future is bright.

As spring approaches and with major airshows like Aero Friedrichshafen in Germany and Sun ‘n Fun in Florida about to trigger a new season of recreational flying, it is time for an annual update of Light-Sport Aircraft market shares. Our well-known “fleet” chart appears nearby; this table refers to all Special LSA registered with FAA in the United States since the first aircraft was accepted by FAA almost ten years ago (on April 5, 2005). We again post our Calendar 2014 tally that shows the success only in that year as a means of drawing attention to those brands and models performing the best in the last twelve months. We remind you that these charts use as their source the FAA registration (N-number) database, that is then carefully studied and corrected to make the most reliable report possible. However, two points: (1) this report will still have some errors as the database on which we rely has some faulty information … though we believe this to be modest and, as noted, we correct it where we can; and, (2) aircraft registrations are not likely to be perfectly in sync with company records of sales for a variety of reasons.

Evaluating the Worldwide Impact of Sport Aircraft

By Dan Johnson || January 28, 2015 Leave a Comment

As the new year dawned my good friends at General Aviation News published my article on the light aircraft industry using Rotax deliveries (and estimates of other engine brands) to estimate worldwide sales of recreational or sport aircraft. The article was presented online as 2015 began and has since appeared in a print edition. This article was updated 1/12/15 and 1/23/15. On the "The Pulse of Aviation" (sign up here; it's free) you can read my article that generated a large number of reader comments, some of which were quite colorful. •A technical glitch that took down the comments has been fixed and you can again peruse the many comments.• GA News is published 26 times a year (subscribe here) and the article was just released in the print version. Online, a few responders apparently didn't think much of LSA with some relying on outdated information. Several others were very supportive. That's the value of free speech and comment sections that permit such open exchanges in the Internet Age.

Here I present a somewhat different message. The first article was aimed at an audience including general aviation pilots, many of whom do not know the LSA or light kit community well. This one is aimed at those following light aviation more closely. As detailed in the GA News article, I reported a market for very light aircraft and Light-Sport-type aircraft that substantially exceeds 3,000 units per year worldwide. Many American pilots remain unaware that the rest of the world flies a large number of light aircraft in the recreational or sporting categories. Overseas, these are commonly referred to as Ultralights or Microlights, Very Light Aircraft, or Light-Sport Aircraft. As you probably know Euro Ultralights are quite different from the U.S. version. Most pilots in the USA focus on what are sometimes called "traditional" general aviation aircraft for which GAMA has reported delivery numbers for many years. Regular tallies of FAA's N-number registration database show that in the USA the ratio is approximately 80/20, traditional GA airplanes to recreational aircraft. In Europe and most other countries that ratio is reversed with GA representing approximately 20% of all civilian aircraft with 80% recreational, according to people who try to assess such figures. This large percentage includes gliders (very big in Europe) but even omitting sailplanes the ratio is quite lopsided in favor of powered recreational aircraft. For most international pilots, GA aircraft are too expensive to buy and operate outside the USA.

"From 1989 through June 5th, 2014, we have sold 50,000 four-stroke engines of the 912 and 914 model designation," noted Christian Mundigler, Key Account Manager of Rotax Aircraft Engine Sales. "On the two-stroke engine side we sold all together more than 120,000 units up to now," he said. These deliveries show Rotax is surely the most prolific producer of engines, but Continental, Jabiru, and Lycoming add powerplants used on recreational aircraft. Assuming their output is about 600 units per year — likely a conservative estimate and only considering production for the light aircraft sector — we calculate the UL/LSA/VLA sector probably reaches beyond 3,500 airframes per year.

In comparison, GAMA will likely report less than 1,100 piston-powered aircraft of all types and sizes from all association members around the globe for 2014 based on information released for the first nine months of the year. Thus, when you include shipments to all countries, the light recreational aircraft market represents a large portion of all civilian, non-commercial airplanes being delivered. With the American LSA and light kit market taking less than 1,000 of the Rotax's annual 3,000-plus aircraft engine production, where are all the others going? "Averaging over a long term our main engine market, including two- and four-stroke powerplants, Europe has around half of the share," reported Mundigler. "The Americas, including North, Central, and South, has about a third of the total." "Growing markets are Russia and China with double digit increase rates in recent years," said Mundigler. Rotax engines run fine on auto gasoline or 100LL aviation fuel; operators can mix mogas and avgas in any proportion without concern. Jabiru also works fine with mogas and Continental has engine models that do as well. Around the world, aviation fuel is not widely available and, as American pilots know, avgas carries a substantial price premium though much less than the $10-12 per gallon in Europe. From the figures used in this article, we can see the light, recreational aircraft industry is alive and well and makes up the largest unit volume share of all aircraft delivered each year.

As the new year dawned my good friends at General Aviation News published my article on the light aircraft industry using Rotax deliveries (and estimates of other engine brands) to estimate worldwide sales of recreational or sport aircraft. The article was presented online as 2015 began and has since appeared in a print edition. This article was updated 1/12/15 and 1/23/15. On the “The Pulse of Aviation” (sign up here; it’s free) you can read my article that generated a large number of reader comments, some of which were quite colorful. •A technical glitch that took down the comments has been fixed and you can again peruse the many comments.• GA News is published 26 times a year (subscribe here) and the article was just released in the print version. Online, a few responders apparently didn’t think much of LSA with some relying on outdated information.

Germany’s Top 10 Ultralights by Aerokurier

By Dan Johnson || September 26, 2014 2 Comments

Evektor Eurostar photo by Patrick Holland-Moritz

AeroSpook Dynamic photo by Frank Herzog

Tecnam P92 photo by Patrick Holland-Moritz

Platzer Kiebitz photo by Birk Möbius

Remox GX photo courtesy Remos

FL-Lightplane FK 9 photo by Patrick Holland-Moritz

Comco Ikarus C22 photo by Jens Wiemann

Flight Design CTLS photo by Patrick Holland-Moritz

AutoGyro MTO Sport photo by Patrick Holland-Moritz

Comco Ikarus C42 photo courtesy Comco Ikarus

Much of what we hear and know about airplane populations is centered on America. Yet in the world of sport and recreational aviation, the rest of the world equates to at least a 1:1 relationship, that is, for every American aircraft flying, many experts agree another flies internationally. It may be more significant than that ... consider Germany. In mid-August, our friends at Aerokurier, Germany's leading aviation magazine, assembled an article about the top 10 ultralights in that country. A European ultralight, as you may know, is not the same as an American ultralight that is today limited to a single seat and no more than 254 pounds of empty weight. In Germany and elsewhere around the European Union, "ultralight" refers to an airplane much like a U.S. Light-Sport but limited in weight to 472.5 kilograms or 1,041 pounds. Originally the weight limit had been 450 kilograms or 992 pounds but because emergency airframe parachutes are mandatory in Germany the weight was increased a few years ago to cover this component. In the following article, we present Aerokurier's article translated by computer and edited for English readers. Any errors from the original are ours. Following Aerokurier's description is our added commentary. We hope you enjoy this glance at the very active sport flying community in Germany. We'll do this in style of TV host David Letterman's Top-10, starting with #10 and working up to #1. According to sanctioned organizations (DaEC & DULV) tasked with administrating and registering ultralights in Germany, 2,257 airplanes comprise the country's Top-10. This number is equivalent to our market share charts that show entire fleet size over the life of the category. The numbers below do not describe annual sales. #10 — Evektor Eurostar (94 flying) — Built by Evektor in Kunovice, Czech Republic, Eurostar is a versatile all-metal low-wing aircraft recommended for travel, training, and towing. Regular model updates ensure that the Eurostar does not look old today. Under the model name Sportstar RTC, the aircraft is also available as EASA-certified LSA [under EU rules called CS-LSA]. |||| Americans know Sportstar and now Harmony as a leading LSA company ranked at #9. Sportstar was the very first LSA to win FAA acceptance back in 2005. This highly refined aircraft has worked well as a trainer and a cross country traveler. #9 — AeroSpool Dynamic (97 flying) — It's fast and belongs to the ultralight beauties at the sky. Built in Slovakia WT9 Dynamic is the epitome of a sporty composite low-wing monoplane. Capable of more than 200 km/h (125 mph) it excels at cross country flying, is comfortable, and can even tow gliders. Dynamic's flight characteristics are exemplary processing. |||| Dynamic in fixed gear form has some U.S. models flying but after Sport Aircraft Works left the business sales slowed to a stop and it never entered the Top-20 of the American LSA market. #8 — P92 (147 flying) — Tecnam supplies the P92, a real bestseller. The all-metal high wing is offered in several variants [including floatplane and taildragger]. These products range from the spartan-equipped light version for schools and clubs through to one fitted for luxurious airplane travel. One thing they all have in common: their flight characteristics are perfectly smooth and its structure is considered indestructible. |||| Italian giant Tecnam has sold P92 for 25 years and has examples all over the world. The company, with multiple LSA accepted by FAA, is ranked #6 in the American LSA market though that does not include their certified Twin that uses a pair of Rotax 912s. In early 2014, Tecnam opened a facility in Sebring, Florida along with an customer-friendly deposit program (only 10% due until delivery is ready) that seems sure to increase their market position. #7 — Kiebitz (151 flying) — The biplane from designer Michael Platzer has a huge following in Germany. Hardly any other ultralight gives so much fun flying in an open cockpit. To win this jewel, owners must either build it or seek one from the used market. Only plans and individual parts are offered, however, for many the effort is worthwhile. |||| Kiebitz has no U.S. market presence yet given the interest in vintage designs like the many Cubalikes, perhaps some interest can develop. On the other hand, Americans already have many choices in the world of homebuilt vintage aircraft so we may never see a Kiebitz in the USA. #6 — Remos GX (166 flying) — Remos Aircraft started in the mid-1990s with the introduction of its composite high wing G-3 that became popular with many ultralight pilots. Professionally produced and easy to fly this ultralight earned an excellent reputation in the industry. Several years ago, the company offered an updated GX version, which was proceeding toward European LSA approval [a more complicated and costly process than in the USA]. After a difficult time in recent years, production restarted in 2013. |||| Even after stalling badly following a tremendous promotional push, Remos still owns the #7 spot in the American LSA ranking, although reports of added financial challenge continue to dog the company. The airplane was marketed more heavily than any other LSA brand and won many happy customers. #5 — FK 9 (202 flying) — With the FK 9 Peter and his father Otto Funk [who died in 2014] presented their first FK 9 at Aero 1989 as one of the first "cabin class" ultralights replacing earlier aircraft that were far more basic. Today, the high wing is a model of success that is enjoys great popularity with many clubs and flight schools in Germany. New model innovations ensure continued success in the market. Older models are on the second hand market remain extremely popular. Today, the aircraft is built by FK-Lightplanes in Poland. |||| FK 9 enjoys market presence and current representation by Hansen Air Group in the USA. Another popular model from this company is the folding-biwing aerobat, FK 12 Comet, and coming from FK Lightplanes and Hansen will be a rather fantastic 70% replica of the P-51 Mustang (video) that you have to see to believe; the detail work is simply amazing. #4 — C22 (229 flying) — Germany's ultralight classic C22 has a loyal following to this day. Since the 1980s the model has stayed on the market and many still authorized aircraft remain active. From today's perspective, flight characteristics and comfort may seem rather spartan, but real ultralight fans love the original flying with the proven tube & Dacron construction from Comco Ikarus based in the south of Germany. [Note that Comco Ikarus also owns the #1 position in the market making this company Germany's clear leader after many years.] |||| No C22s are flying in the USA, nor has the German market leading C42 found many customers. The C22 is very similar to the Flightstar line popular for years in the USA and this entry in Germany's Top-10 listing is the only one faintly resembling what Yankees think of as an American ultralight. No attempt has been made to enter the U.S. with C22 and it probably would not succeed as we have a number of roughly comparable models. #3 — CTLS (243 flying) — From generation to generation the CT series from Flight Design has become better. This cantilevered high wing, all-composite monoplane has established itself as a mature aircraft for travel, training, and glider towing. Thanks to the extra wide cabin and large fuel tanks, lengthy cross country flights are a pleasure. In both USA and in Europe as an EASA-certified holder of a Restricted Type Certificate (RTC), CT is a successful LSA with 600 kg (1,320 pound) maximum gross weight. |||| You know this one in the USA as the longtime and always market leader. Since the beginning of LSA in 2004, Flight Design's CT2K, CTSW, CTLS, and CTLSi have held the largest single market share, currently ranked #1 with 359 in our most recent market share report. At #3 in Germany and #1 in the USA plus a growing presence in China, the company enjoys a strong position. #2 — MTO Sport (346 flying) — This gyroplane is a case of the right product at the right time. In 2004, when the first MT-03 was first built, CEO Otmar Birkner had no idea he would trigger a surprising boom with gyroplanes. Many pilots love to be in the open cockpit feel the wind in your hair and to experience the flying dynamics of an autogyro. Today AutoGyro from the north of Germany is the world's leader in the gyro business. The MT-03 and its successor MTO Sport end up together in second place in Germany's registration statistics. |||| AutoGyro and other gyro providers operate in America but as FAA cannot seem to overcome their own rules, these popular planes must be built as Experimental Amateur Built (the 51% rule). If FAA ever catches up with the trend, look for more gyros to be flying as Americans seems to like the fully enclosed two seaters in tandem and side by side form. Rotax reports that gyroplanes are the #1 buyers of Rotax 912 of any aircraft type in the world. #1 — C42 (582 flying) — Germany's most popular ultralight comes from the south of Germany. C42 by Comco Ikarus secures first place with 582 licensed copies of this tube & Dacron, high wing monoplane. It has been refined repeatedly over the years and currently the manufacturer produces three versions: C42A, C42B and C42C. The aircraft is very easy to use and is widely used by flying clubs and their flight schools. |||| The clear king of ultralights in Germany has 70% more aircraft registered than the number two producer and represents more than 25% of Germany's Top-10, a stronger position than even the top two U.S. LSA producers put together. While Comco Ikarus has attempted to gain an American foothold, exhibiting at big events such as AirVenture in past years, the company has never found either the right representation nor market reception, though admittedly the U.S. market is crowded with great competition for customer attention. As you can see, the Germany and American markets have their differences but also enjoy great similarity. Germany is one of the very strongest light aircraft markets outside the U.S., trailed in approximate order by the Czech Republic, France, Britain, Spain, Italy and others. The American market remains the world's largest for light aircraft of all types, but in the world of sport and recreation is closely trailed by other countries.

The Next Decade of Light-Sport & Sport Pilot

By Dan Johnson || September 2, 2014 Leave a Comment

engineering artwork prepared by Jaro Dostal

In July I posted an article about an AOPA survey conducted through the biggest member organization's daily newsletter, eBrief (sign-up page). That provided a broad glimpse into both the mind of an AOPA eBrief reader (and responder) but might also be used to forecast some possibilities for the LSA industry. In this article, I'm going to again use the survey data but look at such information in a different manner. I suspect LSA business people will read this with interest but it may be meaningful to any pilot interested in buying or partnering their way into a LSA or in finding a Light-Sport Aircraft available for students and others to fly at flight schools and FBOs around the country. LSA are by no means limited to the USA, of course, so I'll also make some informed guesses about what I see as the global aspect to the LSA development, now beginning its second decade*. Let's do a bit of number review to help put this in context. AOPA reports about 400,000 members, making it by far the largest pilot membership organization in the world. Let's be conservative and say only about 300,000 are active or interested in being active. (I hope the number is not this small, but I prefer to err on the side of caution in this review.) As the nearby chart shows, 12.59% of eBrief readers say they are now flying while using the privileges of the Sport Pilot certificate. While 26.4% said they were not interested in sport pilot, the largest single group responding said they could envision themselves flying as a sport pilot in the future. The two affirmative answers total 73.6 percent. I stress that these numbers come from eBrief readers and may not mirror all AOPA member opinions. However, assuming the sample size was large enough to be valid — for reference, surveys of about 1,000 are commonly used to sample the entire U.S. population — then this eBrief survey might mean the following. Assuming 300,000 "active" AOPA members, 12.59% of them represents 37,770 members. The future figure 61.01% would represent 183,030, and the two numbers sum to 220,800 members. Based on FAA registration data, we know 37,700 do not presently own a LSA nor a compatible kit aircraft nor a parameter-meeting Standard Category airplane but aircraft ownership was not the question posed. However, whether they own them or someone else does, that many pilots could be flying LSA or LSA-like aircraft that do not require a medical. Apparently many more are intrigued by flying modern, fuel-efficient, and superbly equipped LSA or other aircraft that don't require a medical. Note that beside fully built Special LSA, Sport Pilot certificate holders may fly Standard Category aircraft or homebuilt aircraft so long as those flying machines meet the parameters (1,320 pound gross weight; speed less than 120 knots, etc.). Thus, available aircraft include SLSA, ELSA, Experimental kit-built aircraft, or other Sport Pilot-eligible aircraft beyond LSA. If at some time 220,800 AOPA members are interested in flying as a sport pilot, how many might one day consider buying a new or used Light-Sport Aircraft? This question is far fuzzier so let's soberly reduce the numbers. We can guess that only one in ten of those (or 22,080) are truly interested to buy a LSA. Of that group, we can estimate only one in six of potential buyers (3,680 or 1.67% of interested members) will act on that interest. If it took ten years to fulfill such market potential, that averages 368 aircraft per year. Based on the first decade of LSA, this figure is certainly achieveable; the industry can safely produce this number ... indeed, has produced many more in the years before the Great Recession. Are these assumptions reasonable? Who knows? The GA industry sells more single-engine piston aircraft per year so those numbers certainly aren't beyond belief when considering the potential large interest from AOPA members as reflected by responses to the eBrief survey. For LSA producers, the estimates above are only part of the story. In the sport or recreational aircraft world, the USA is not the dominant market. It is surely the largest single-nation market but the rest of the world easily accounts for at least 1:1, that is, for every sport aircraft sold in America, at least one may be sold in some other country (though we lack hard evidence of this). As LSA are presently accepted in several other nations with more to follow, the 1:1 ratio remains conservative, I feel. Thus, 368 U.S.-delivered aircraft could translate to 736 aircraft sold globally each year for the second decade of Sport Pilot / Light-Sport Aircraft. Will this occur? The only sure way to know is to ask again in 2024 but my speculation using the AOPA eBrief survey numbers is that the future for LSA remains bright. * The SP/LSA rule was announced July 20, 2004 but the first aircraft were not FAA accepted then delivered to customers until April of 2005. So, LSA will only reach their first full decade completed by Sun 'n Fun 2015.

In July I posted an article about an AOPA survey conducted through the biggest member organization’s daily newsletter, eBrief (sign-up page). That provided a broad glimpse into both the mind of an AOPA eBrief reader (and responder) but might also be used to forecast some possibilities for the LSA industry. In this article, I’m going to again use the survey data but look at such information in a different manner. I suspect LSA business people will read this with interest but it may be meaningful to any pilot interested in buying or partnering their way into a LSA or in finding a Light-Sport Aircraft available for students and others to fly at flight schools and FBOs around the country. LSA are by no means limited to the USA, of course, so I’ll also make some informed guesses about what I see as the global aspect to the LSA development, now beginning its second decade*.

2013 Light-Sport Market Share Report & Analysis

By Dan Johnson || May 21, 2014 Leave a Comment

As always, we remind you that all numbers here are derived from FAA's N-number registration database and are subject to data entry errors. Figures presented are not identical to sales recorded by the companies though over time the numbers draw closer.

This chart, created by Jan Fridrich for a presentation at Aero in Germany, shows trend lines for several categories. While LSA continue to slump, some see this as the "bottom" and reported order taking over the last 18 months supports future improvement. Of interest is the brown line for German and Czech ultralights or microlights (similar though slightly lighter than U.S. LSA). Note its volume similarity to LSA and the steadiness of the line throughout the economic downturn from 2008 to 2012. Germany and the Czech Republic are two of the most active countries in Europe.

UPDATE: May 27, 2014 — "A vigorous debate ensued ..." might be one way to refer to a four-way discussion from around the globe. Over the last few days, LSA industry folks in distant lands worked on market share details. Michael Coates is the Australian-based U.S. distributor for Pipistrel, an aircraft fabricated in Slovenia and assembled as a LSA in nearby Italy for shipment to the USA. My Czech-based associate, Jan Fridrich, was in China again because his country works with that nation as they build a personal aviation sector virtually from scratch. From our corners of the world we tried to resolve a problem that regularly occurs in our study of the FAA registration database. Pipistrel maintained their SLSA airplane numbers were stronger. Jan and I communicated and finally agreed that we were underreporting their numbers. The chart below has been modified to reflect a truer situation, sharply moving Pipistrel upward from 20th to 14th rank. Essentially, the problem stems from some Pipistrel aircraft being registered as "gliders," which is one of those categories Jan and I do not feel we can consistently count with accuracy. After Jan studied the database we chose to update the chart with the understanding that our next reporting may see another minor adjustment. As with many statistical evaluations, these reviews often get better as the survey gets larger over a longer period of time. Meanwhile, congratulations to Pipistel for improving their standing ... and for informing us. If other sellers believe their registrations are reported in error, we'd like to hear about it so we can do our best to deliver quality, accurate information. —DJ We are past due for a market share update and several of you have written to ask. As most readers know, I create my report from information assembled by my LAMA associate and friend Jan Fridrich who puts hours into the tedious duty of sifting through FAA's database. It isn't only time consuming, exacting work. He must also make many determinations as FAA's database is not always clear as to model types or other descriptions. As many of you are aware, we do not report weight shift, powered parachutes, gyros, or motorgliders as those are aircraft types we cannot accurately count. I wish we could report those "alternative aircraft" — doing so would make the totals more reflective of the true LSA market — but we cannot. Jan has also been unusually busy going to many meetings ... the kind you would not care to attend: long, dry meetings in various countries where regulators and industry leaders go over rules in excruciating detail. Someone has to do it and I'm thankful for people like Jan who endure these sessions. For this reason, I was unwilling to push harder for his study of the database. However, he has done it again so a hearty THANK YOU, JAN FRIDRICH for your dedication to this industry. As I've written and as many are aware 2013 was not a strong year for SLSA registrations. It was an improved year for sales but after so many down-economy years manufacturers had reduced their manufacturing capacity — achieved by releasing employees, employing less manufacturing floor space, maintaining smaller raw material inventories, keeping fewer engines on hand and so forth. So, when sales mounted a comeback in 2013, builders were unable to keep up. Backlogs stretch out to a year for some companies. That may improve in 2014 as they cautiously increase their rates of production but meanwhile several companies tell customers it can be several to many months before a new order will be available to them. So far first quarter numbers for 2014 continue to reflect these delays but I have received several comments that new LSA are beginning to arrive more regularly. Cessna, as one notable example, slipped from second to third and will continue moving lower now that they halted production. Their exit alone caused a drop in the totals. Yet others, like Icon Aircraft, will eventually hit the chart and move up as they begin to deliver from their list of 1,000+ customers holding order positions. One industry expert told me, "My input [is] that 2013 will be the bottom of the LSA market, which means there is nowhere to go but up. If you counted all ELSA 2013 was really pretty decent, with RV-12 leading the pack. CubCrafters' order book is very healthy, too." To that I add the following thought ... Entire LSA Market — I want to refer you to a different market report I issued earlier and note that besides weight shift, powered parachutes, gyros, or motorgliders, we also do not report ELSA (kit LSA). Again, the data entry process is difficult for FAA clerks because so many makes and models are present to confuse those less involved with the sector. Experimental Amateur Built aircraft can be flown by Sport Pilots and are sometimes incorrectly called Light-Sport. ELSA may receive their airworthiness certificate only if they are identical to the SLSA version accepted by FAA, however, afterward they can change. With 136 SLSA models, it doesn't surprise me that errors creep into the database but for our charts to make sense year-over-year, we report only the most identifiable group: Special LSA airplanes. Yet this means that to know the whole market size you must add a substantial, growing percentage (as much as 50% more) to include those other aircraft. Chart Explanations & Disclaimer — If you compare numbers from one year to the next, you may see changes you cannot explain. For example, a company's numbers can go down if, for example, aircraft are taken out of service due to theft, damage, or sale outside the USA, which means they may be removed from FAA's database. Some companies in the USA also distribute to Canada or Mexico and LSA going to those countries will not be counted in our chart even while they rightly call them a sale. Comparing "Total" Figures — Rob Rollison of Aerotrek, besides doing a steady job of selling his reasonably priced A220s and A240s, often comments that our chart numbers do not perfectly reflect all SLSA that his company has registered. If a LSA is destroyed, by a hangar collapsing on it let's say, that aircraft will eventually come off the FAA database making it appear that it was never sold. Thus, FAA's current registry does not fully state the total registrations that ever occurred. "If Model A Ford cars were in some current U.S. registry, we'd see 50 of these antiques today, not the millions Ford once sold," noted Rob. He is correct; our chart (and FAA's database) does not include every SLSA ever registered. Counting all of them would make the total somewhat larger. However, we stick to our same methods in the interest of keeping our chart consistent through the years even though it undervalues the industry's true sales. As further explanation, you can see the chart shows 76 Aerotreks models in the FAA database. Rob has provided an exact accounting of every U.S. registration he ever made and his figure is at least 83, though he notes four were damaged and some others transitioned to ELSA status, which suggests our reported figures are very close. Until we can collect actual — and honest, valid — sales data from all manufacturers, our chart is the one we present. The market is truly larger than either chart suggests. We appreciate if all readers keep this in mind when studying the LSA Market Share Chart.

UPDATE: May 27, 2014 — “A vigorous debate ensued …” might be one way to refer to a four-way discussion from around the globe. Over the last few days, LSA industry folks in distant lands worked on market share details. Michael Coates is the Australian-based U.S. distributor for Pipistrel, an aircraft fabricated in Slovenia and assembled as a LSA in nearby Italy for shipment to the USA. My Czech-based associate, Jan Fridrich, was in China again because his country works with that nation as they build a personal aviation sector virtually from scratch. From our corners of the world we tried to resolve a problem that regularly occurs in our study of the FAA registration database. Pipistrel maintained their SLSA airplane numbers were stronger. Jan and I communicated and finally agreed that we were underreporting their numbers. The chart below has been modified to reflect a truer situation, sharply moving Pipistrel upward from 20th to 14th rank.