LSA Market Shares Archives - Page 3 of 7

Update on the 2013 LSA Marketplace

By Dan Johnson || December 31, 2013 Leave a Comment

At least aviation is not bowling! Recent articles say the number of American bowlers has plummeted from nine million to two million, a drop of 78%. Compared to that the aviation industry looks far more durable (line chart). Indeed, aviation in all sectors is facing challenges but we are buoyed by reports in the same newspapers that say Americans are feeling more financially secure since stock markets are up substantially and houses are selling faster and at better prices. However, as we'll show below, 2013 is one of those transition years. That means that sales have been occurring at an increased pace, but due to companies assuming a defensive posture in the 2007-2011 downturn, production is now lagging behind sales just as it was in 2005-2006 when LSA burst on the scene. I'm optimistic that 2014 is going to be a much stronger year. I am not the only one. "I feel we will be experiencing two significant growth years in 2014 and 2015 based on the continued aging of the pilot population and the pent-up demand in the marketplace," said Tim Casey, Garmin's sales manager for portables, LSA, and experimental aircraft markets. In his role for the big avionics maker, Tim keeps a very close eye on the industry. "Combine that with the activity surrounding the Part 23 re-write and it appears we may be approaching an inflection point in the market," added Casey. The biggest single change in the LSA market numbers is that Cessna appears to have thrown in the towel on Skycatcher (article). Whatever the corporate decision may ultimately be, the fact is that Cessna registered zero Skycatchers in the first nine months of 2013. In all of 2012 ... 94. Remove the "Cessna variable" and you might say LSA registrations are up in 2013 (though that analysis might have too much "sunshine" for some readers). To be honest, the numbers still look weak though fortunately some bright spots exist. Two brands — CubCrafters and Van's — are game changers. As noted Van's has elected to take its popular RV-12 more deeply into fully built SLSA. In the same part of the country, CubCrafters is again showing great strength. Plus, several of our top suppliers remain very active even if their registration numbers look light. One company said they'd made more than 30 sales yet registered only a quarter of them, all in 2013. As the engines of production accelerate around the USA and world, we can see rising currents of air in the industry. Unlike in years past, the U.S.-based manufacturers in particular seem ready to lift more pilots aloft. Hoping for a much improved 2014 and 2015 and focusing on the companies that did enjoy a good first nine months of 2013, we tick off the top performers. Once again, the LSA pack is lead — very convincingly — by CubCrafters with a solid 40 new registrations in nine months. Calculating forward, the Yakima company should hit 53 aircraft registered, boosting last year's good performance by another 10%. At this rate, CubCrafters will pass Cessna and give Flight Design its greatest challenge so far. Congratulation to Jim Richmond's CubCrew! In the first nine months of 2013, CubCrafters is trailed at some distance by SportCruiser logging 13 registrations and American Legend with 12. Both performances are good; U.S. Sport Aircraft has maintained admirable sales consistency even through the down years and Legend bounced back from some soft years of late. Another top brand that is reviving nicely is Tecnam with 10 registrations in the first nine months of 2013. Please remember, all numbers are derived from the FAA registration database and are rarely in perfect sync with a company's sales activity; over time, these differences find equilibrium. A notch back but still finding good performance in a sluggish economy is Pipistrel, which logged eight registrations and finally arrived in the Top 20 List. Flight Design added seven registrations but is one of those companies reporting much better sales albeit with delivery lags slowing their entry to the FAA database. Tied with Flight Design is Aerotrek. For this company, the figures represent another good performance; they ranked third in 2012 registrations, now move into the Top 10, and have generally been a model of consistent sales. Producer Aeropro takes a conservative approach and can only allocate a limited number of their production to the USA (England is presently hot for them). Phoenix Air USA, importer of the gorgeous motorglider of the same name registered three and has also had to learn patience with the manufacturer's cautious delivery pace. In 2013, the refrain has been that sales are up from 2011 and 2012 but deliveries are not keeping up, a situation that should improve as builders sense better economic conditions. Finally, remember that many producers sell elsewhere in the world. ByDanJohnson.com is now read 31% by pilots not residing in the USA and this helps to show the global effect LSA is enjoying. So, as 2013 closes, we wish all readers a HAPPY NEW YEAR ... we think it is going to be a good one! Notice: As always, we observe for you that all numbers here are derived from FAA's N-number registration database and are subject to data entry errors. Figures presented are not identical to sales recorded by the companies though over time the numbers draw closer.

Why LSA Registrations are Down in 2013

By Dan Johnson || October 15, 2013 Leave a Comment

CubCrafters has steadily moved upward in fleet size and has enjoyed two strong years in 2012 and 2013.

The future remains bright for Light-Sport Aircraft with interesting designs in the pipeline, improved models from well-known builders, and a wide price range able to suit most budgets. Importantly, the safety record remains good. Pictured is Terrafugia's proposed TF-X.

A number of you have asked about an updated sales report for 2013. While remembering that we report registrations not sales, this year has been a different sort. Registrations are down from 2012, with the exception that CubCrafters remains the registration (and presumably sales) leader. American Legend and their Cubs are also showing more activity than previous years. Beyond the yellow taildragger squadron, it's something of a mixed bag. More on that below. ••• Let me offer you another statistic that amazes me while speaking to ever-growing interest in Light-Sport Aircraft and light kit aircraft that Sport Pilots may fly. In September, ByDanJohnson.com set an all-time record with 71,400 Unique Visitors, 25% higher than our previous record (July 2013). In 2013, Unique Visitors have averaged more than 35,000 per month, a figure more than double 2012, which had been our best year ever. If I appear to be bragging too loudly, let me say that I believe this website is merely the messenger and that it is a fleet of great LSA and a solid team of suppliers and service providers that is delivering visitor growth. People are flocking to ByDanJohnson.com because, I believe, LSA and Sport Pilot-eligible kits and other aircraft are THE growth area for aviation. Thanks to less obtrusive regulations and greater design freedom, this sector is where innovation shines at (relatively) affordable cost. We thank you for stopping for a visit and we welcome you back often. If our website traffic is soaring and if LSA and SP-eligible kits and airplanes are the growth area, why are registrations off significantly in 2013? It's a valid question and I don't presume to have all the answers. However, I'd like to describe the history to help explain. At the dawn of SP/LSA, anticipation had grown to a fever pitch over this new class of airplane with its own pilot certificate. The lack of need for an aviation medical was a huge component, but it was more. General aviation manufacturers, hobbled by a frightfully expensive regulatory structure, were only rarely coming out with new airplanes and the cost of these aircraft was breathtaking (and still is ... a Cirrus SR22 can sell for more than $800,000!). FAA is finally acting to move toward industry consensus standards for GA aircraft and we think that will be helpful. Meanwhile the combined effort by AOPA and EAA to rid pilots of the need for a third class medical to fly certain larger airplanes appears completely stalled, even by the organizations' own statements, leaving LSA as the only alternative for a growing community of older aviators. "You're only one medical away from an LSA," went the line. In the heady days of 2005-2006-2007, LSA manufacturers could not keep up with demand. Many built larger factories, hired more qualified workers, and spend millions to create more and better designs. Component manufacturers also kept a steady drumbeat of sought-after instruments, accessories, parts, and add-on features. Those were exciting years for LSA. Then the "Great Recession" hit hard. Industries far beyond aviation were pummeled and government officials spoke of a banking collapse. Sales declined (see nearby chart) and LSA manufacturers scrambled to adjust. Many lost money as they had built too much capacity right about the time demand slacked. As you can see, it was even worse for GA and bizjet makers but it was hard on the LSA industry. So, manufacturers got small, the only defensive posture they could take as these are not deep pocket companies. The recession supposedly ended in 2009, though many will tell you their lives haven't improved much. Unemployment remains high; the U.S. labor force is smaller than it was in 2000 despite 30 million more population. The stock market has recovered, but household income has only risen marginally. Interest rates are held near zero by Federal Reserve policies but loans remain hard to get for small companies. LSA producers had no choice but to adjust. Another factor emerging since 2006 is increased regulatory burden, in the USA and other countries, contributing to more effort needed by manufacturers to demonstrate compliance and meet added rules placed on them. At the same time new technologies such as glass panels, autopilots, and more complex engines have demanded more from producers. Add these requirements to a difficult economy and you have ample explanation why manufacturers are not building airplanes as fast as they once were. The good news: LSA are better airplanes than ever. Plus, new designs continue to emerge and most LSA builders remain in business, albeit with smaller operations. The industry is leaner but still active. However, all these factors translate in 2013 to longer delivery times. Some aircraft builders, like Aerotrek and Phoenix Air, never went overboard to build as many airplanes and both those companies have maintained steady businesses with deliveries stretching into 2014. Producers who made many more airplanes are still building but in more cautious volumes. So, when demand finally began rising as it did early in 2013, orders were written and deposits made, but airplanes were in the supply line and not available to be registered. Hence, 2013 registration numbers are soft. As demand and supply find equilibrium, delivery times will come down and registrations will rise. We may not see the manufacturing pace of 2006 for some time but I remain absolutely convinced that LSA and SP-eligible kits and aircraft are the new entry point in aviation. Plus, remember LSA are a worldwide phenomenon. Prices range from less than $40,000 to more than $200,000 but consider that a new Cessna 172 Skyhawk will sell for nearly $400,000 in 2014. That venerable design will still be a 1950/60s design, where modern LSA have many qualities to support a still-strong interest in flying. Will 2014 be a year of much improved results? I don't know. My crystal ball is no better than yours. Yet I know this. We have many terrific airplanes and more are on the way. We still have, by far, the least costly pilot certificate and no medical is needed. Our airplanes burn much less fuel and most work great on mogas. We've got great engines, panels, and comfortable cockpits. In addition, this: people still want to fly their own airplane. To gain a fresh perspective, what better way than to go aloft and see at this beautiful planet or examine your own neighborhood from above. Flying remains a very special activity and we should celebrate how easily and affordably we can pursue it. Light-Sport Aircraft make this possible for more people and that value will only get stronger.

Survey Results for Reasons to Buy LSA

By Dan Johnson || September 16, 2013 Leave a Comment

Presenting "20+ Reasons to Buy an LSA." The forum turned into standing room only showing the LSA interest level is high, a fact confirmed by good attendance at this year's Expo. photo from Midwest LSA Expo's Facebook page

At the Midwest LSA Expo that concluded a few days back, I delivered a presentation called "20+ Reasons to Buy an LSA." However, to handle the subject a little bit differently, I turned it into an audience participation exercise. As I presented each slide of one particular reason, I explained what was meant and elaborated on how each reason made LSA different from other sorts of aircraft someone might consider buying. Then, I asked the audience to raise their hand if that reason was one that might cause them to buy a Light-Sport. I advised that no one was recording their names, so they remained anonymous. Each person could raise their hand as many times as they wanted or never raise their hand if they chose. No one had to participate. About 35 people listened and somewhere between 15 and 25 answered most of the time. The following chart shows the responses. The sample size isn't large enough to be scientific, but I bet manufacturers and sellers will pay attention. To make the chart easier to comprehend, I changed the order of reasons to reflect those that provide the most compelling reasons to buy. You can see that number one was fuel efficiency. This result must be satisfying to Rotax engineers and salesmen because that company's new fuel injected 912 iS engine boasts a considerably better fuel burn rate than the carburetor version (912 ULS) that preceded it and which is still available. I'll have more about Rotax's 912 iS in a following post. Three reasons tied for second place: the spaciousness of LSA cockpits; the rapid pace at which manufacturers can introduce new designs or technology (thanks to the ASTM standards method of obtaining FAA acceptance); and, not surprisingly, the sheer joy of flying these responsive, good performing, roomy, fuel-sipping aircraft. A large share were motivated by the chance for LSA owners to do their own annual condition inspection (after a 16-hour weekend course) or full maintenance (after a monthlong course). A three-way tie for fourth included: the huge visibility many of these aircraft offer (I told listeners that the view from aloft was my main reason to enjoy flying); their solid safety record as established after more than eight years of owner operation; and, the generous payloads they offer both as a share of their gross weight and compared to many GA aircraft. The arrow shows the most popular reasons answered by more than half the participants, but you can see that all the other reasons also have their adherents. You'd have to hear the hourlong presentation to know precisely what the other reasons mean, but their titles are fairly self-explanatory. Notably, flat last, with about a third of respondents, was the low noise output of most LSA. Of course, that's something more important for folks on the ground and my audience at the Midwest LSA Expo wanted to fly. Indeed, that's a leading reason to attend the fall event in Mt. Vernon, Illinois. Demo flights don't get much easier to deliver than at this flying-friendly airport. A special thanks to Jacob Peed, director of Aviators Hot Line for tallying the responses as I presented. Aviators and ByDanJohnson.com plan a further effort of surveying these questions as a means to help buyers and sellers achieve their goals.

At the Midwest LSA Expo that concluded a few days back, I delivered a presentation called “20+ Reasons to Buy an LSA.” However, to handle the subject a little bit differently, I turned it into an audience participation exercise. As I presented each slide of one particular reason, I explained what was meant and elaborated on how each reason made LSA different from other sorts of aircraft someone might consider buying. Then, I asked the audience to raise their hand if that reason was one that might cause them to buy a Light-Sport. I advised that no one was recording their names, so they remained anonymous. Each person could raise their hand as many times as they wanted or never raise their hand if they chose. No one had to participate. About 35 people listened and somewhere between 15 and 25 answered most of the time. The following chart shows the responses.

2012 LSA Market Shares — Cubs & Surprises

By Dan Johnson || February 9, 2013 3 Comments

Our annual review of LSA Market Share brings our updated fleet chart and a second chart showing prior-year registrations. While sales of new SLSA remains below par, the market appears to be experiencing spotty but regular recovery from earlier low points. The first half the year foretold a better recovery but the last half of the year stalled somewhat. Regardless, based on traffic to this website, LSA interest is higher than ever. For January 2013, ByDanJohnson.com set all-time records in Unique Visitors and all other measuring criteria Thank you for your support! 2012 Market Share report — Nearby, we present our standard market share numbers. Our original chart remains consistent, illustrating the "installed base," or "fleet size." Because we know many of you seek recent-year information we are repeating the Calendar Year chart that debuted last year.

For the second year in a row Cessna lead in 2012 with an impressive 94 registrations though this is down 30% from 134 in 2011. While Cessna looked to set a new record with 76 registrations (152 annualized) in the first half of 2012, their pace slowed sharply in the second half, adding only 23, perhaps a result of their announcement about switching to Primary Category as a means of entering the European market. The Wichita giant is singlehandedly restarting Primary Category with the first such application in nearly 20 years, a decision that may inspire other companies to go this route.

Perhaps the most noteworthy story in 2012 registrations is an even better performance by CubCrafters. The Washington State company added 48 new registrations, up 33% from 36 in 2011. Company marketing boss John Whitish reported 52 SLSA sales, which prompts us to ask that you read the notice at the end of this article. Congratulations to CubCrafters, clearly a company to keep watching.

A remarkably steady climber is Aerotrek, which took the #3 slot for 2012 registrations, a notable improvement from their #5 spot in 2011. Despite some reports that all SLSA are expensive, Aerotrek has a very attractive price point and an impressively built, folding wing aircraft available in tailwheel or trigear. Aerotrek consistently replies to our listings, with the goal of making our FAA registrations report more precise. This happens, for example, when sales occur to Canada with no N-number assigned or when a SLSA drops down to ELSA perhaps as the owner wants to make design changes (which is allowed as is owner maintenance). Other companies also see differences explained by deregistration, accidents that remove the aircraft from the registry, or simple errors in data entry after a sale. Regardless of the variables in counting registrations versus sales, bravo to Aerotrek! Based on their faithful feedback we have been able to improve our accuracy.

Other top guns in 2012 include perennial leaders like Flight Design, which remains convincingly atop the overall fleet and added 11 more registrations during the year and American Legend which revived from a sluggish 2011 to add 11 SLSA in 2012. SportCruiser importer US Sport Aircraft fulfilled the last of the PiperSport orders and rewrote their distributor agreement with Czech Sport Aircraft; they added another 10 SLSA in 2012. In a pleasant but unexpected turn, importer Phoenix Air USA added an impressive 10 SLSA registrations of their extremely lovely motorglider. Congratulations to all these leaders.

A member of the exclusive Over-100 Club listing only eight SLSA producers is Tecnam. The Italian company showed renewed vigor logging six registrations in the second half of the year. They also successfully completed an FAA audit in Italy. Among their five SLSA models, four are high-wing models yet their low wing Sierra has 51 units flying in America, more than any other Tecnam model. Another European producer with facilities in Italy is Pipistrel, which overcame regulatory hurdles in mid-year and has begun delivering SLSA to Americans. They also logged six in the last half of the year. Both Tecnam and Pipistrel report active sales outside the USA.

Unfortunately, one former high flyer, Remos, lost its U.S representative and has become very quiet though earlier this year, their CEO said they had recovered from the previous CEO's high-spending ways. We are watching a few companies not on our fleet chart. One new entry to the SLSA scene is Bristell, in a new partnership with fractional ownership provider, AAP. They join some other companies that have not been active long enough to get on the fleet chart, but nonetheless deserve attention. These companies include World Aircraft Co., which is bringing all production to their Paris, Tennessee facility. Breezer is now established on the Sun 'n Fun campus and more is expected from them. Sky Arrow producer Magnaghi has new life and may resurge. Aero's AT-4 (formerly known as Gobosh) is back with new representation. Just Aircraft got rave reviews on their SuperSTOL model and this mostly kit company is enjoying a solid run of business something like 100% kit producers Zenith Aircraft and Sonex. While mentioning kit builders (not on our SLSA list), we must include Van's Aircraft, which has seen registration of 203 RV-12 kits.

We are also watching the pulse on seaplanes lead this year by Progressive Aerodyne, which earned SLSA approval even as FAA increased their oversight via highly detailed audits. Congratulations to the SeaRey team for this significant accomplishment. This brief look at the LSA market is not complete. One observation is that the "All other producers" category is now the largest percentage, indicating small producers continue to develop sales. Some companies not reflected in our Top-20 and Top-10 charts may emerge into these lists in the future. Others that have been in the Top-20 but which are no longer producing new aircraft were omitted. However, all SLSA models are covered in our SPLOG reports and you may also examine our Featured Aircraft (right column of most pages) for more exciting Light-Sport Aircraft and other aircraft Sport Pilots can fly.

As I have said for years, a loud shout-out is owed to Jan Fridrich of the Czech LAA for the LSA Market Share report. Jan is also head of LAMA Europe and a tireless worker for the advancement of Light-Sport aviation. He invests many hours to analyze data for each report. Thanks, Jan, on behalf of all ByDanJohnson.com readers. During 2013, we will work to solicit comments from producers to evaluate the sales versus registration numbers. This is not an easy task and no promises are made yet the effort seems worthwhile in the pursuit of better information.

Notice: As always, we observe for you that all numbers here are derived from FAA's N-number registration database and are subject to data entry errors. Figures presented are not identical to sales recorded by the companies though over time the numbers draw closer. UPDATE 2/13/13: GAMA held a press conference today where they released their industry numbers. Get more on GAMA here, but this is where their figures relate to the Light-Sport market. Piston aircraft, singles and twins, suffered a minor drop, only 1.9% down; GAMA did list some LSA in their report but did not use them in summary tables. Turbines were up and GAMA added agricultural crop-spraying planes to their membership; many ag planes are turbine powered. Jets were down slightly more at minus 3.4%. Like the Light-Sport industry, GAMA is hoping for improvement in 2013 and they announced some interesting initiatives to this end.

Our annual review of LSA Market Share brings our updated fleet chart and a second chart showing prior-year registrations. While sales of new SLSA remains below par, the market appears to be experiencing spotty but regular recovery from earlier low points. The first half the year foretold a better recovery but the last half of the year stalled somewhat. Regardless, based on traffic to this website, LSA interest is higher than ever. For January 2013, ByDanJohnson.com set all-time records in Unique Visitors and all other measuring criteria Thank you for your support! 2012 Market Share report — Nearby, we present our standard market share numbers. Our original chart remains consistent, illustrating the “installed base,” or “fleet size.” Because we know many of you seek recent-year information we are repeating the Calendar Year chart that debuted last year. For the second year in a row Cessna lead in 2012 with an impressive 94 registrations though this is down 30% from 134 in 2011.

First Half 2012 LSA Registration Update

By Dan Johnson || September 5, 2012 Leave a Comment

BRM Aero's Bristell appears to be an up-and-comer.

Jim Lee has quietly been logging a slew of orders for his smooth motorglider.

Aerotrek continues to be a solid selling aircraft, and offers one of the lower price points among LSA.

We've been getting requests for market share information and I am happy to provide an update, thanks to my European associate Jan Fridrich who does the hard work of sifting through FAA's database. I remind you that his efforts are not merely tallying whatever FAA publishes. In fairness, Jan has to evaluate many pieces of information and judge accuracy of the entries. This isn't because FAA's registrars are bumbling fools that cannot enter data accurately. The challenges come from sheer number of brands (90) and models (127) over a mere seven years... unprecedented in aviation history. To that add the variations of Experimental Amateur Built (EAB), Special Light-Sport Aircraft (SLSA), Experimental Light-Sport Aircraft kits (ELSA) and converted two-place ultralights to LSA status. Then factor in that some standard category or homebuilt aircraft meet the LSA parameters of weight and speed and such so some people consider them "LSA," when in fact they mean they can be flown by some possessing a Sport Pilot certificate. My onetime EAA associate Ron Wagner coined the phrase "Sport Pilot eligible" to describe these aircraft. So now we come to the first half of 2012. Cessna appears the clear and away winner of the registration sweepstakes with an impressive 71 registered aircraft logged in six months (11.8/month). Jan reports a good number of these are registered in Cessna's corporate name so they do not equate to deliveries though they are newly hatched LSA. In all of 2011 Cessna registered 11.2/month so Shenyang Aircraft in China is finding a steady pace of production. Following well behind but still leading the rest of the pack is CubCrafters with 28 more registrations in the first half (4.7/month), a faster pace than their 2011 performance of 36 (3.0/month), indeed greater than 50% more production than last year when they also came in second after Cessna. American Legend managed to slightly up their 2011 pace to register seven new LSA in the first six months of 2012, trailed by Flight Design with six, followed by a tie between Jabiru U.S. and SportCruiser at five each. One surprise is Phoenix, the sleek motorglider builder, whose U.S. importer registered four in 2012 but reports having sold 20. "We cannot keep up with orders from customers," Jim Lee reports, "even though the production rate has increased." Bristell registered three and was followed by a chain of companies registering two apiece: Arion and their Lightning, Renegade and their Falcon, World Aircraft and their Spirit, and Canadian Light Aircraft and their Bush Caddy. Quite a few more companies at least got on the log and I think it's fair to say the first half of 2012 represents an improvement over 2011. That's great and we'll hope for more progress in the Light-Sport Aircraft sector. Update 9/5/12 — Shortly after we released the nearby chart, we heard from Aerotrek that we had undercounted their registrations. Besides our regrets — we do strive for accuracy — we repeat the comment that FAA's database can be a confusing place. Aerotrek's Rob Rollison sent detailed information to support his registration of six new LSA (the earlier report was for two) in the first half of 2012. He reported three each of the A240 tricycle gear models and A220 taildragger models were registered. Aerotrek continues to enjoy positive developments. In defending his registrations, Rob wrote, "Every plane I receive from [manufacturer] Aeropro is already sold — we are sold-out eight months in advance at the present time (and it's been this way for over a year)." Contratulations to Aerotrek and Aeropro. We looked into the data more deeply and corrected the chart. DISCLAIMER: As always we remind readers that the information presented in the text above and in the nearby graph is derived from registrations as logged by FAA Registration Branch. Figures are not sales or deliveries though over time, these values will tend to be very close. Also, the registration database used for this report may no longer include aircraft that were removed from the registry, slightly altering the numbers. Such removals can occur when an aircraft is shipped out of the USA, is destroyed by an accident, or is taken from Special LSA category to another category like Experimental LSA. Every effort has been made to report the most accurate information available.

We’ve been getting requests for market share information and I am happy to provide an update, thanks to my European associate Jan Fridrich who does the hard work of sifting through FAA’s database. I remind you that his efforts are not merely tallying whatever FAA publishes. In fairness, Jan has to evaluate many pieces of information and judge accuracy of the entries. This isn’t because FAA’s registrars are bumbling fools that cannot enter data accurately. The challenges come from sheer number of brands (90) and models (127) over a mere seven years… unprecedented in aviation history. To that add the variations of Experimental Amateur Built (EAB), Special Light-Sport Aircraft (SLSA), Experimental Light-Sport Aircraft kits (ELSA) and converted two-place ultralights to LSA status. Then factor in that some standard category or homebuilt aircraft meet the LSA parameters of weight and speed and such so some people consider them “LSA,” when in fact they mean they can be flown by some possessing a Sport Pilot certificate.

Great Internet Year for Recreational Aviation

By Dan Johnson || September 2, 2012 Leave a Comment

LSA are proliferating all around the planet.

We try not to overdo this, but we have a new benchmark to share with you. *** One year ago, we loaded a new graphic onto our home page. The idea was to better identify where in the world we were finding visitors so we put up Flag Counter, which you can see at the bottom of the Featured Aircraft listing in the right column. It's been fun to watch the numbers and flags adjust. *** If you click on that image you can get much more info. One thing you'll see is that we've had 191 countries come to visit, including some you may not know existed. Indeed, the entire world has an interest in affordable, recreational aircraft. *** You'll also note a count of Unique Visitors. At the end of the first year of having this counter on ByDanJohnson.com, we exceeded 150,000 Unique Visitors, according to Flag Counter. Our own stats counter — which doesn't simply sample as most other counters do, instead counting every visit — shows an even larger number: 181,846 or more than 15,150 per month. In 2012, our all-time record year, the average has exceeded 16,000 Unique Visitors per month. We feel mighty fortunate about our steady growth since everyone knows too well we have a sluggish economy most places on the planet. *** In August of 2012, we exceeded 3 million hits for the first time, and our bandwidth showed nearly 60 GB of content delivered. That's more than 12 DVDs worth or 75 CDs full... every month. Our sponsors — who help us make so much available for free — care how many times their banners and messages are being seen and we have consistently over-delivered on that promise as well. Oh, BTW, our August revenues also set a record and we sincerely thank our many sponsors for their unwavering support that benefits every reader. *** All this is just numbers and we hesitate to wave our flag too vigorously as it sounds like bragging. OK, it is a bit, but the larger, more important message is that the idea of affordable aircraft and flying for fun appears — at least by the benchmark of one website's performance — to be alive and well... all over the globe. *** Of course, the big aviation websites like those from AOPA, EAA, AvWeb, ANN, and many others have even larger numbers of visitors but they often include aviators interested in working or business aircraft. Instead, we offer the sporting community of aviators a concentrated package: all fun flying and no business or transport aircraft content. *** We enjoy what we do here at ByDanJohnson.com and we hope it shows. We're lucky to have top-notch contributors that add depth. We CERTAINLY appreciate your regular, growing visits and we promise to work hard every single day to keep providing the news, videos, and other information you seek. Thanks so much for clicking by for a visit! C'mon back soon.

FAA’s 20-Year Forecast; Focus on Light-Sport

By Dan Johnson || March 18, 2012 Leave a Comment

Rotax BRP's more fuel efficient 912 iS.

Cessna's Skycatcher lead 2011 registrations among LSA followed by CubCrafters.

Flight Design's CT series maintains the largest fleet of LSA.

FAA issued its 20-year forecast for aviation showing growth prospects for business jets and Light-Sport Aircraft. It also forecasts a decline in the total number of piston-powered aircraft. Viewed from a distance, this might seem beneficial to Light-Sport Aircraft producers and sellers. Reasonably, FAA's report appears to suggest recreational pilots will enjoy more hours aloft in a growing fleet of LSA. *** Against a backdrop of what seems to be continuously increasing prices for avgas — some believe 100LL might even disappear — the fuel efficiency of LSA becomes more important. For example, Rotax just launched their 912 iS fuel-injected engine boasting a 21% reduction in fuel consumption, taking the popular engine from burning about five gallons per hour to a theoretical four gallons in an hour of flying. Should we LSA enthusiasts celebrate these facts? *** Regretfully, I find FAA's forecast improbable (see details below). Not that the agency's number crunchers are wrong; in fact, I hope they might be right. I simply find a 20-year forecast for an industry only seven years old to be a form of spreadsheet-based palm reading. *** Forecasting the future is barely more than informed guessing... by anyone, whether FAA, stock market forecasters, or climate predictors. Foretelling the future commonly relies on historical perspectives that are often upended by new developments, whether technical innovations on the plus side or terror attacks on the minus side. Innumerable events conspire to render even the most thoughtful forecast totally incorrect. *** That said, here are a few more tidbits gleaned from a study of FAA's spreadsheets: ••• Certified single engine piston airplanes (other than LSA) are forecast to decline from 148,101 when LSA arrived on the scene in 2005 to 135,340 by 2032. This 12,761 drop amounts to about 500 aircraft per year being retired from the fleet. ••• Experimentals are expected to grow by 32% over this 26-year period (which includes a few years already confirmed: 2005 to 2010) to 31,140 aircraft. This calculates to adding about 289 Experimentals per year throughout that period. ••• "Sport Aircraft," a category I presume includes LSA, is expected to expand from 6,528 in 2010 to 10,195 in 2032. Of the 6,528 in the most recent count, some 4,000 are evidently ultralights converted to ELSA. Those won't be repeating, so it seems FAA is forecasting growth of new SLSA at 3,667 aircraft over a 20-year window, or about 183 aircraft per year. Since the LSA industry has every year produced more than 183 aircraft — some years twice that or more — FAA's forecast is questionable to me. ••• Interestingly, when you add the growth in Experimentals to the projected growth in LSA you get almost exactly a 1:1 replacement for those departing FAA-certified single engine aircraft. Thus, in FAA's crystal ball, the overall fleet of single engine flying machines will flat line over the next two decades. ••• FAA predicts meaningful growth in pilot certificates only for Sport Pilot and Rotorcraft pilots. Growth of Sport Pilot certificates is by far the highest in percentage terms, though the recent starting date skews the data. Despite this statistical anomaly, I find Sport Pilot growth reasonable given that this new certificate — like the LSA themselves — represents the new entry point for pilot starts. Why pay for a Private when you can get an FAA license for half the cost? *** In summary, the FAA effort is worthwhile and appreciated, but honestly, I would not bet these figures are reliable given the distant horizon. The only way to know for sure? Check back in 20 years. To compare FAA's significantly different forecast from only two years ago, read this report.

2011 Market Share Info… and We Set Records

By Dan Johnson || February 8, 2012 Leave a Comment

...is setting records

CubCrafters achieved the #2 performance in 2011, a credit to their highly refined and very potent Cubalike with a 180-hp engine. photo courtesy CubCrafters

Cessna's Skycatcher leads in 2011 registrations. photo courtesy Cessna Aircraft

The LSA Market Share numbers are complete for 2011 and we offer them below. But first, if you will permit, I wish to say a hearty thanks to all the visitors that helped ByDanJohnson.com achieve an all-time record month in January 2012 following a strong December 2011. In the first month of the new year we broke nearly every prior record: Unique Visitors, Total Visits, and Hits. We also serve a 25% international audience in nearly every country on Earth. We appreciate the long-term loyalty of our sponsors and each of you who are Members. Your $29 annual donation to this website helps us provide lots of free information. Thank you for your support. 2011 Market Share Report Nearby, we present our standard market share numbers. Our original chart remains consistent, illustrating the "installed base," or "fleet size." However, we know many of you want current-year information and therefore we begin our first Calendar Year chart. *** No question about it. Cessna easily won the 2011 race with 134 registrations, the most ever in one year for one company and 48% of all registrations for the year. Flight Design achieved nearly this number for two years running (109 and 103 in '06 and '07). Even Cessna can't yet match that. Experts and former Cessna people wonder how many of the 1,000 original Skycatcher deposits could be returned after a dramatic 30% price increase but that takes nothing away from Wichita giant's performance at delivering aircraft, slowly in 2009, accelerating in 2010, and zooming upward in 2011. *** The second biggest story in 2011 registration performance is CubCrafters. Their 36 new registrations vaulted the company into the number two spot in overall fleet, while Cessna and the SportCruiser are tied in third. Last year deliveries were good enough for second in 2011, yet CubCrafters has a solid record of adding to their fleet (15-51-19-24-39-36 in '06 thru '11). Cessna didn't start delivering until 2009. *** In third and fourth place for 2011 are perennial leader Flight Design, which remains convincingly atop the overall fleet, and the SportCruiser. Importer US Sport Aircraft has done well to carry on after Piper left the LSA scene. Both Flight Design and US Sport Aircraft have strong customer support programs that help account for their success. *** Another interesting accomplishment are the twin (but different) companies of Jabiru USA and Arion, which tied for 2011 registrations. Jabiru is one of our Big Eight with more than 100 aircraft in the fleet (though Evektor is nearly ready to make it Big Nine). Arion is all-U.S. design and manufacture and has been steadily adding SLSA to a respectable fleet of kit-built LS-1s. *** Some solid producers American Legend, Tecnam, and Remos had a slow year but reported sales at Sebring 2012 in response to new models and programs from each company. *** It's little surprise to see Aerotrek in the #5 spot for 2011 and #12 overall. The company has one of the best price points among SLSA and an impressively built, folding wing aircraft available in tailwheel or trigear. *** In the Up-and-Comers Department, I suggest keeping an eye on American producers Allegro, World Aircraft, and Progressive Aerodyne plus European builders Pipistrel and Fk Lightplanes. Finally, SportairUSA has the broadest selection of SLSA plus the coolest options worth a closer look. *** This brief review of the LSA market is not complete. Please see all our SPLOG reports and Featured Aircraft for more on the Light-Sport Aircraft and other aircraft Sport Pilots can fly. Notice: As always, we observe for you that all numbers here are derived from FAA's N-number registration database. These figures are not identical to sales logged by the companies. ••• A sincere thank you goes to Jan Fridrich of the Czech LAA for his work on the LSA Market Share report. Jan is also head of LAMA Europe and a tireless worker for the advancement of Light-Sport aviation. He invests many hours to analyze data for each report. Thanks Jan, on behalf of all ByDanJohnson.com readers.

Third Quarter 2011 LSA Market Report; Cessna Jumps

By Dan Johnson || November 2, 2011 Leave a Comment

Cessna's Skycatcher now ranks #2 in FAA N-number registrations. Read my Skycatcher pilot report. photo courtesy Cessna Aircraft

Van's has registered 132 kit RV-12s since Brad Stiefvater flew this first customer-built version in September 2009. photo courtesy General Aviation News

Sure enough, by several measures and based on multiple conversations, 2011 is shaping up to be a better year than 2010. Of course, that's not saying much as all of aviation worldwide was slow last year and in 2009. When you're near the bottom of the well, everything starts looking up. *** With those thoughts in mind, we present the newest market share report, this one through the third quarter of 2011. In recent years we've had folks tell us we ought to show charts of this year's or this quarter's performance. But most readers want to know the "installed base," to borrow a phrase from the trend-setting tech industry. When people talk about Windows versus Apple market share or iOS versus Android, they generally mean how many of all buyers have those systems. *** Nonetheless, we recognize pilots are hungry for more recent info. So for several years, we have discussed near-term performance in the text of our articles even while we present a graphic showing FAA N-number registrations since the beginning. The nearby chart has become a staple of this industry used by all sorts of people: other airframe producers, avionics and other equipment manufacturers, insurance companies, FAA, and member organizations. *** For the last nine months, Cessna is far and away the leader, with 140 registrations logged in 2011. The Wichita giant once boasted of nearly 1,000 Skycatcher customers and they have been fulfilling those orders with increasing speed. Following them is CubCrafters with 29 registrations this year so far. Other top producers include CSA's SportCruiser (20), Flight Design (17), and Jabiru USA (8). *** One new arrival in the top 20 is Arion and their Lightning (6 in 2011). Another up and comer is Pipistrel, fresh from their third-in-a-row victory at the NASA Green Challenge. For all other companies, 2011 has continued the very sluggish sales pace of 2008, '09, and '10. Notice: As always, we observe for you that all numbers here are derived from FAA's N-number registration database. These figures are not identical to sales logged by the companies although, over time, the numbers get closer.*** A few kit producers deserve mention even though we struggle to count these numbers accurately due to confusion by entry clerks regarding the fuzzy distinctions between kit ELSA, amateur-built kits, and ELSA converted from two-place ultralights (the latter being, by far, the largest single component of what are called Light-Sport Aircraft in America). Nonetheless with 132 FAA N-number registrations, Van's Aircraft and their RV-12 earned our attention. Rans is another significant kit producer of aircraft meeting all parameters of Light-Sport Aircraft — the Kansas company also sells SLSA and ELSA versions of some models. *** Cessna's rise to the #2 slot from the #8 place at the beginning of the year pushed everyone else down. Onetime #2 producer American Legend now finds itself in #5 with 5 new registrations in 2011. *** Yet the top 10 have remained remarkably stable, and indeed, they account for more than 70% of all SLSA fixed wing airplanes delivered since day one in April 2005.

Sure enough, by several measures and based on multiple conversations, 2011 is shaping up to be a better year than 2010. Of course, that’s not saying much as all of aviation worldwide was slow last year and in 2009. When you’re near the bottom of the well, everything starts looking up. *** With those thoughts in mind, we present the newest market share report, this one through the third quarter of 2011. In recent years we’ve had folks tell us we ought to show charts of this year’s or this quarter’s performance. But most readers want to know the “installed base,” to borrow a phrase from the trend-setting tech industry. When people talk about Windows versus Apple market share or iOS versus Android, they generally mean how many of all buyers have those systems. *** Nonetheless, we recognize pilots are hungry for more recent info. So for several years, we have discussed near-term performance in the text of our articles even while we present a graphic showing FAA N-number registrations since the beginning.

First Half 2011 LSA Market Report

By Dan Johnson || July 21, 2011 Leave a Comment

Arion's Lightning, an all-American design, is close to entering the Top 20. photo courtesy Arion Aircraft

Renegade's Falcon was first to fly with Lycoming's O-233 LSA variant engine.

Several readers have asked and we are finally delivering. Jan Fridrich and I present the LSA Market Share Report for the first half of 2011. Figures show a mimicking of 2010 output and that was not a strong year. However, the numbers are not down from 2010 so you could see stability if not growth. *** In the first half of 2011 six companies account for almost 90% of registrations and Cessna alone accounted for precisely half of these. The other five producers: CubCrafters (17% of all first half 2011 deliveries), Czech Aircraft Works (including PiperSport, 13%), Flight Design (7%), Jabiru (4%), and Aerotrek (3%). *** The Over-100 Club now has eight members (chart) up from six at the end of 2010. Our numbers reflect total fleet size, so growth measured this way is inevitable. This method of illustrating market share identifies the strongest producers since 2005. To reveal rising brands that don't make the Top 20, we use text references. In this period, that includes the Arion Lightning and the Renegade Falcon. While not yet making the Top 20 both are aircraft to watch. Each is U.S. built and in this metric we see the most surprising aspect of this report... *** U.S. manufacturers have overtaken European producers. While unquestionably an American brand, some readers will question Skycatcher's national origin (think Apple and their devices... designed in the U.S. / built overseas). But that doesn't change the fact of American designs for the first time out-registering European brands in the first half of 2011. *** Cessna has risen to be the market leader for 2011, moving up to 8th from 13th place in our Top 20, based on 54 registrations this year. Their potential would seem potent considering the Wichita giant reported 1,000 orders. Some industry observers expressed that the Chinese manufacturing operation proved difficult to start. Additionally, Cessna may have allowed things to run slower both to improve quality and perhaps because some customers might cancel their Skycatcher orders if pushed to take them in this difficult economy. *** Let's keep aviation production figures in perspective. According to multiple sources, airplanes are not the only challenged industry. Marina owners who used to sell plenty of large boats are struggling and RV manufacturers are having a tough time; one billon-dollar corporation (Monaco) entered bankruptcy. The misery of this sluggish economy touches many. As one expert put it, "Airplanes, even Light-Sports, are luxury items and except for the super rich, many otherwise well-to-do persons are holding back on spending." Meanwhile, the stronger companies are moving upward and the Light-Sport industry's many small players can be extremely tenacious. As the U.S/EU economies improve, LSA are the most likely to benefit thanks to lower prices and great qualities.